Australias First Woman PM

 So Australia has its first woman Prime Minister, it's very historical and all that but I'm just not feeling the "I was there when it happened" type vibe.

Perhaps it's because with two female Premiers currently serving, and any number of female politicians (Wollongong and its surrounds are almost exclusively represented by women), a woman PM seems to have been just a matter of time rather than some giant hurdle that we had to be fighting to overcome.

Whatever the reason I'm more concerned with seeing where PM Gillard takes the party and the country.

She is not a clean skin when it comes to the Governments policies up until now. She, as the Deputy Prime Minister has been neck deep in policy development, and in fact was instrumental in convincing Rudd to drop the Emissions Trading Scheme (this I think is the moment when the slide to oblivion for Rudd started). So once the "First Female PM" gloss wears off, she's going to have to work hard to convince the people that she's something different.

I think she's going to go to an early election (possibly August/September). Her commitment to not live in the Lodge until her leadership has been validated by an election (Yes I know she doesn't get elected as PM, but the party leader affects the vote), plus the move to cut off the mining tax as an issue would seem to indicate that she'll be clearing the decks and aiming for her own mandate.

For those hoping that a new leader might sweep out some of the dead wood in cabinet, say a certain Communications Minister, I wouldn't hold out too much hope. Distribution of Ministries in the Labor Party are almost never the sole purvue of the Prime Minister. It usually involves a complex political calculation based on which faction is dominant, who owes who a favour and so on. Given that Conroy is a leading light in the Right faction of the Labor party, and that it was primarily the Right faction that put Gillard into the hot seat, I don't think there's going to be much of a chance that he's going to want to let go of the NBN or in fact the Filter.

All in all interesting times ahead. But whether we're actually going to see positive change is something I'm going to hold judgement on.