Double Dissolution - An Opportunity

So now that the Government has the trigger and the ammunition for a Double Dissolution election, what does that mean for the rest of us?

First off let's be clear what a Double Dissolution election actually entails:

• Every seat is vacated, this means everyone is up for election including ALL Senators (whereas in a normal election only half the Senate is up for election).
• This means that the required quota of votes to be elected to the Senate is effectively halved (House of Reps voting remains unchanged).
• Once the election is concluded, then there is a joint sitting of both houses of parliament to vote on the bills that were rejected. This special sitting aggregates the votes of both houses (ie both the House of Reps and Senate votes are added together) to determine the result.

Let's have a look at what this means for each of the players:

Labor:

The Labor party is obviously going to have a lot at stake in the Double Dissolution election, however they have been handed a couple of very good weapons going into the fight. Firstly, the last couple of weeks has shown a Liberal party at war with itself. The election of Tony Abbott will not heal any of the wounds within the party, especially considering his placement firmly within the Howard school of conservative politics. Secondly while people may be wary of anything that looks like a tax, at least the Labor party has the start of a plan to handle climate change, while the Coalition is frantically trying to sort out what exactly it believes in.

Liberals:

The Liberals are in trouble. Not only from the Labor party, but I'd bet dollars to cents that the Nationals would be looking to take back some of the rural seats that the Liberals have taken from them in past elections. A Double Dissolution election presents the Liberals with both an opportunity and a threat. The opportunity lies in bringing in new, vigorous blood to the party, with all seats open they can start blooding new talent to replace the older generation that was emphatically rejected at the last election. The threat of course lies in the possibility that the Liberal party's inability to govern itself and lack of anything the closely resembles a Climate Change management plan could lead to it bleeding seats. Fun times indeed.

Nationals:

The Nationals have made the most out of the Liberals dissarray I think. Standing to one side (except when they've been invited to stick the boot in, good move Malcolm), they've presented a united party front and have shown an amazing amount of discipline in maintaining the party line and appealing to those in the rural areas who are worried about what the CPRS could have meant to agricultural and mineral production. I think they're going to approach a Double Dissolution with the express purpose of grabbing back seats from the Liberals and firming up their rural conservative base. I also think that any thoughts of a Federal party merger with the Libs are now so far off the table that they're still in the freezer section.

Greens:

The Greens are to Labor as the Nationals are to the Liberals. While Labor has been "negotiating" with the Liberals to get a weakend CPRS package through the Senate, the Greens have stood firm in demanding a plan that is more comprehensive and less lucrative for the big polluters. A Double Dissolution election presents them with an opportunity to grab more seats in the upper house and possible return the lower house, through voter dissatisfaction with the Labor Governments watering down of the CPRS legislation.

Family First:

At first I figured that Family First would be the biggest loser in any election, Double Dissolution or not. However the more I think about it, with the shift to the right by the Liberals, they may be willing to funnel enough preferences to Family First to keep and independent conservative faction in the house to counter any increased Green representation. Of course, whether Fielding himself stays on is another question.

Independents:

This is where it gets interesting, especially in the Senate. While Nick Xenophon is the only Independent in the Senate at the moment, a Double Dissolution election, with its reduced primary vote quota opens the door for more independents to enter the house. I think I'll put together another post about the independents.

Well that's my thoughts, you may of course disagree.